• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0535

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 20:17:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042017
    SPC MCD 042016=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0535
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Central North and South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042016Z - 042215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered wind damage and severe hail are
    possible across central North and South Carolina over the next few
    hours. This threat is expected to be fairly localized and short in
    duration, but a watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop along an
    outflow boundary from prior convection over TN/KY/GA. MRMS
    vertically integrated ice and echo top trends over the past 30-60
    minutes show that this activity has been largely transient with
    individual cells exhibiting short lifespans in the absence of
    stronger forcing for ascent and weak vertical wind shear.
    Nonetheless, strong boundary-layer heating is noted across the
    Carolinas where skies have been mostly clear through the day and
    temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and low 90s amid
    dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. This is supporting MLCAPE
    values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg along with steep low-level
    lapse rates (near 8 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis). This environment is
    supportive of at least a few instances of severe hail and damaging
    winds with any stronger updraft pulses. The severe threat may be
    slightly higher across central/southern SC where deep-layer shear is
    somewhat stronger (near 30 knots of effective bulk shear). Overall,
    the coverage and duration of this threat is expected to remain low,
    but trends will be monitored and a watch is possible if confidence
    in coverage and intensity increases.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tSoztMbcaqjGZgg6AK57KkVb0OfYqBRzTT4GMGarQAUA3X5E_FFQPKGyxGfZV8x82e15zFvr$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34168261 34808170 35168111 35688040 36377971 36547895
    36357780 35967727 35357737 34477761 33767886 33087968
    32808040 32798092 33188159 33678212 34168261=20

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