• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0534

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 20:04:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042003=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-042200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0534
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast MS...Central AL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

    Valid 042003Z - 042200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

    SUMMARY...Complex convective evolution is anticipated from
    west-central MS through northern/central AL over the next few hours.
    Strong winds appear most likely from east-central MS into
    west-central AL

    DISCUSSION...Strongest part of the ongoing convective line appears
    to be progressing through central MS currently. However, radar and
    surface observations reveal a remnant outflow boundary draped from
    northeast MS across central AL and through west-central GA. Western
    and central portions of this outflow boundary have stalled, with the
    western portion appearing to now move back northward as an effective
    warm front. Thunderstorms are ongoing north of the boundary across
    much of AL, which could impede any northward motion.=20

    Given these mesoscale complexities, the overall convective evolution
    as the line begins to interact with this boundary is uncertain.
    Dewpoints are in the mid 60s across east-central MS and west-central
    AL, decreasing to closer to 60 over east-central AL and west-central
    GA. This is resulting is decreasing buoyancy from west to east,
    introducing additional uncertainty with how far north and east
    severe will occur with this convective line. Most probable area for
    strong wind gusts is from east-central MS into west-central AL where
    buoyancy remains strong. Elsewhere, convective trends will be
    monitored closely, with at least some potential for a watch over
    northern AL.

    ..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rhRaHaNlMQgsB4aECciU4BRQtCoj6kkTEdVCBr5dL7rscq9lphZTXc3AYO7obdTvAFD3bH1f$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33298967 34568841 34418565 33338552 32778636 32738867
    33298967=20



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