Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Northeast MS...Central AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...
Valid 042003Z - 042200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.
SUMMARY...Complex convective evolution is anticipated from
west-central MS through northern/central AL over the next few hours.
Strong winds appear most likely from east-central MS into
DISCUSSION...Strongest part of the ongoing convective line appears
to be progressing through central MS currently. However, radar and
surface observations reveal a remnant outflow boundary draped from
northeast MS across central AL and through west-central GA. Western
and central portions of this outflow boundary have stalled, with the
western portion appearing to now move back northward as an effective
warm front. Thunderstorms are ongoing north of the boundary across
much of AL, which could impede any northward motion.=20
Given these mesoscale complexities, the overall convective evolution
as the line begins to interact with this boundary is uncertain.
Dewpoints are in the mid 60s across east-central MS and west-central
AL, decreasing to closer to 60 over east-central AL and west-central
GA. This is resulting is decreasing buoyancy from west to east,
introducing additional uncertainty with how far north and east
severe will occur with this convective line. Most probable area for
strong wind gusts is from east-central MS into west-central AL where
buoyancy remains strong. Elsewhere, convective trends will be
monitored closely, with at least some potential for a watch over
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