• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0533

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 19:50:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041950
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041950=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-042145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0533
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Virginia and Maryland

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...

    Valid 041950Z - 042145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds, and perhaps severe hail, remain likely
    across much of Virginia and Maryland as clusters of storms continue
    to move east.

    DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms continue to move east
    across central Virginia, and a few reports of wind damage and hail
    have been noted within the past hour. Although these storms remain
    somewhat unorganized, the environment across central VA into MD
    continues to improve. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg are noted across south-central VA, effective bulk shear magnitudes have increased
    slightly across the region, and low-level lapse rates have steepened
    to around 8 C/km (per recent RAP mesoanalysis). This environment
    should remain supportive of a damaging wind/hail threat through the
    remainder of the afternoon as boundary-layer heating continues. One
    or two bowing segments are possible across north VA/west MD where
    low-level shear is slightly stronger (nearly 30 knots 0-3 km bulk
    shear noted in KLWX VWP observations), but confidence in this
    scenario is low.

    ..Moore.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r8P4aDpXc_WV0UUxYTCQD_pL4iPnmvnazkWauHd0UmWRIdbZNuHogxr3ZLG5qrnCRuwC9yWY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37117963 38097909 39017835 39357760 39537705 39347603
    38607579 37917594 37337683 37087781 37007874 37117963=20



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