• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 19:29:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041929
    SPC MCD 041928=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Pennsylvania...far southern
    New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041928Z - 042030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat exists with some of the stronger
    storms. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain
    possible over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Despite large-scale upper ridging in place, an embedded
    mid-level perturbation is approaching portions of central PA, with
    an uptick in convective coverage and intensity noted. Relatively
    steep low-level lapse rates (i.e. 7 C/km per latest Mesoanalysis)
    fostering 500 J/kg MLCAPE along with modest directional low-level
    shear are promoting an environment supportive of transient rotating
    storms. Within the past hour, a TDS has recently been noted on a
    cell in Elk County, PA, and additional transient circulations,
    potentially supporting the development of a brief tornado or two,
    remain possible over the next few hours. A couple of damaging gusts
    may also accompany the stronger storms. Given the isolated nature of
    the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q0KvjHgJ8Dy5tLjmjuV7I90puZR_KT4k-ymQroKDetp3FQlMNbEK0mS5mP6J1d-llQMtLkF-$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41078002 41657916 42017843 42107772 42127668 42027598
    41607554 41237540 40947560 40877641 40947695 40947806

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