• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0531

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 19:18:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041918
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041917=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0531
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Far Eastern LA...Central MS...West-Central AL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...

    Valid 041917Z - 042045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for strong damaging wind gusts, some over 70 mph,
    and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue for the next several
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery depicts a now well-organized
    convective line extending from north-central MS southwestward into
    eastern LA moving eastward at 45-50 kt. VAD profile from SHV sampled
    the rear-inflow jet well and the latest imagery from DGX is also
    sampling strong winds within this system. Potential exists for gusts
    over 70 mph at the surface.

    Downstream air mass is very moist, with recent mesoanalysis
    estimating 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 16 g/kg and surface
    dewpoints in the low 70s. Earlier storms have reduced the mid-level
    lapse rates a bit, but forecast soundings and mesoanalysis still
    show steep lapse rates in the 800 to 600 mb layer. As such, overall
    buoyancy remains strong and there are no indications within the
    observations or environment of the line weakening.

    Some potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes exist, particularly if
    the rear-inflow continues to mature and descend into the low-levels.

    ..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pD-e0986PgM4RnGngGfWwQss34UDMjvrybGyyPV7Fe60OR3uxUxNUHCOROsArS-QnE59bSWC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 33039060 33668937 33168780 31808778 31169148 33039060=20



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