Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Far Eastern LA...Central MS...West-Central AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...
Valid 041917Z - 042045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for strong damaging wind gusts, some over 70 mph,
and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue for the next several
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery depicts a now well-organized
convective line extending from north-central MS southwestward into
eastern LA moving eastward at 45-50 kt. VAD profile from SHV sampled
the rear-inflow jet well and the latest imagery from DGX is also
sampling strong winds within this system. Potential exists for gusts
over 70 mph at the surface.
Downstream air mass is very moist, with recent mesoanalysis
estimating 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 16 g/kg and surface
dewpoints in the low 70s. Earlier storms have reduced the mid-level
lapse rates a bit, but forecast soundings and mesoanalysis still
show steep lapse rates in the 800 to 600 mb layer. As such, overall
buoyancy remains strong and there are no indications within the
observations or environment of the line weakening.
Some potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes exist, particularly if
the rear-inflow continues to mature and descend into the low-levels.
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