• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 18:59:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041859
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041859=20
    ARZ000-042100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041859Z - 042100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible along the front as it
    moves across north-central and northeast AR.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles north-northwest of RUE in north-central AR. A cold front extends
    northeastward from this low through southeast MO and southern IL,
    and southward from the low across western AR. Modest instability
    exists ahead of this front and attendant low, which could lead to
    isolated thunderstorm development along the front as it continues southeastward. Strong vertical shear is also in place, the potential
    exists for a strong storm or two. However, progressive nature of the
    front suggests likely undercutting of any storms that do develop,
    limiting both severity and longevity.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5lwfyJs5y68HzM5S5Y10aBH0N_d-xu7seix2Iu_2PqatKLvYbdSVF_rjHFouDyk6e_gAwxS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35429332 36249223 36439056 35459023 34669133 34519300
    35429332=20



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