• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0527

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 17:17:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041717
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041716=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-041845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0527
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Central LA into Southwest MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...

    Valid 041716Z - 041845Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.

    SUMMARY...A corridor of relatively greater severe risk may be
    developing across central LA and west-central MS.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of thunderstorms extending from far
    southern AR back westward into far southeast TX is beginning to show
    signs of more forward progression, particularly within the portion
    of the line over northern LA. Air mass downstream of this cluster is
    very unstable, with mesoanalysis currently estimating MLCAPE over
    3000 J/kg, and strongly sheared. Additionally, recent surface
    observations and radar imagery appear to reveal a modest boundary
    acting as an effective warm front, roughly from JAN (in Rankin
    County MS) southwestward to just east of AEX (in Rapides Parish LA). Temperatures south of this boundary are in the 80s with dewpoints in
    the mid 70s. This boundary could act as an impetus for additional
    storm intensification/organization, with the corridor along this
    effective frontal zone experiencing a heightened threat for strong
    damaging wind gusts as well as hail and brief QLCS tornadoes.

    ..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pAZrT5W9pW3gn64Rcnod0Rrx3lVTOpdxbnLc5OIeWEjnCHuHC30gncMvFUF1cariScktK-lo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32209323 32759178 32798995 31679011 30889296 32209323=20



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