Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Central LA into Southwest MS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...
Valid 041716Z - 041845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of relatively greater severe risk may be
developing across central LA and west-central MS.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of thunderstorms extending from far
southern AR back westward into far southeast TX is beginning to show
signs of more forward progression, particularly within the portion
of the line over northern LA. Air mass downstream of this cluster is
very unstable, with mesoanalysis currently estimating MLCAPE over
3000 J/kg, and strongly sheared. Additionally, recent surface
observations and radar imagery appear to reveal a modest boundary
acting as an effective warm front, roughly from JAN (in Rankin
County MS) southwestward to just east of AEX (in Rapides Parish LA). Temperatures south of this boundary are in the 80s with dewpoints in
the mid 70s. This boundary could act as an impetus for additional
storm intensification/organization, with the corridor along this
effective frontal zone experiencing a heightened threat for strong
damaging wind gusts as well as hail and brief QLCS tornadoes.
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