• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0526

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 17:04:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041704
    SPC MCD 041704=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0526
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1204 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...northern North
    Carolina...and Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 041704Z - 041800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in
    the coming hours across eastern West Virginia and western Virginia.
    These storms will pose a risk for damaging winds as they move east.
    A watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends have shown a recent uptick
    in convection across eastern West Virginia and far western Virginia
    over the past 30-60 minutes. This activity is primarily being driven
    by lift ahead of a shortwave impulse - likely a lingering MCV from
    prior convection across the mid-South. Morning soundings from NC and
    VA show steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and mostly clear
    skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s.
    These factors, combined with rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints
    in the 60s), are supporting increasing MLCAPE values with 1000 J/kg
    noted across central VA in recent RAP mesoanalysis. Continued
    boundary-layer heating will further augment instability while
    reducing MLCIN through the mid afternoon. Increasing upper-level
    flow in the vicinity of the shortwave should support effective bulk
    shear values near 30-35 knots, which will support at least some
    storm organization within a broken line. Given steepening low-level
    lapse rates across the region, the primary threat appears to be
    damaging winds, though a few instances of severe hail are possible.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qg_KV5PRstQmBELwkJEuIE2yRFR2ShhvHXa0QddZZk4ctamYMgaIMxsyrde5sLcfz0XZZuLa$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36758151 37438114 38628019 39107935 39087779 38757696
    38037659 37247654 36597687 36317751 36308031 36418099

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