• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0525

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 16:59:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041659
    SPC MCD 041658=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0525
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Northern MS...Southwest TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041658Z - 041900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong wind
    gusts are possible this afternoon as a cluster of storms moves into
    the region this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Portions of the Mid-South continue to destabilization
    quickly amid diurnal heating and strong low-level moisture
    advection. Current mesoanalysis estimates only limited convective
    inhibition remains and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg over northern MS and
    adjacent far east-central AR. This region lies downstream of an
    ongoing storm cluster across northern LA/southern AR. Expectation is
    for portions of this cluster to continue northeastward into the
    destabilized air mass over the Mid-South. Steep mid-level lapse
    rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear will promote the develop
    of strong updrafts capable of large hail and strong downburst winds.

    There is some uncertainty how far north the better low-level
    moisture will advect before the storm cluster arrives, but the
    potential exists for the severe thunderstorm threat to extend into
    portions of southwest TN.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tCQkQbKAoMxDBpR4eIvKjLUNkhAuWGiQhk7kEbB6NUzwwqnKItFkq0p3X82aFyKoPE7Ldpj_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34609110 35309045 35578926 35298816 33928883 33659067

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