• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0524

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 14:04:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041404
    SPC MCD 041403=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0524
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0903 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Far Northeast/East-Central MS...Northern/Central AL...Northwest GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 041403Z - 041600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storm cluster may evolve into a more organized
    linear system capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.
    Trends are being monitored for likely watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Western edge of the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms
    from northeast MS across northern AL is beginning to show more
    forward propagation, suggestive that a cold pool may becoming more established/organized. This increased forward motion may also be
    tied to the ascent associated with the shortwave trough moving into
    AR. In either case, the downstream environment supports continued
    development. 12Z BMX sounding sampled a deep, moist boundary layer
    and 100-mb mean mixing ratio over 15 g/kg. Ongoing storms have
    likely reduced the maximum lapse rate between 2-6 km, which was over
    7 deg C per km on the sounding, but the moist low-levels still
    result moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg).

    Whether or not this ongoing cluster is able to evolve into a linear
    MCS remains uncertain, but trends are indicating this potential is
    increasing. Additionally, interaction between the more
    eastward-moving storms on the western edge of the cluster with
    leading storms could result in localized updraft intensification.
    This intensification would likely promote strong downdrafts and
    occasional hail. Convective trends are being monitored closely for
    watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pPM08f1gIqrRoNHKPHix7aBv6bQZYTm-DD6c20-aN3MYZ5gMoZzJfpcYuFKM6mFsCVlmAuMH$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33838443 32948601 33118831 33518935 34388810 34808689
    34758445 33838443=20

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