• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0523

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 13:34:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041333=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0833 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...East Louisiana...Southern Mississippi...and
    southwest Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 041333Z - 041530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of the
    lower Mississippi river valley region, and will likely continue
    through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Strong to severe
    storms are expected, and a watch is likely to address this concern.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar and satellite trends show
    thunderstorm development underway across south-central MS with a
    robust supercell noted near the Jackson, MS area. Visible imagery
    shows additional agitated cumulus across the region within a broad
    warm advection regime. Morning soundings show only minimal capping
    in place with MLCAPE values between 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally,
    favorable wind profiles are noted with 30-40 knots of effective bulk
    shear and 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in regional soundings and VWPs.
    These trends and observations suggest that additional thunderstorm
    development is likely in the coming hours and should support at
    least a few robust severe storms with all severe hazards possible.
    (though storm mode and coverage remain somewhat uncertain). A watch
    will likely be needed to address this potential.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!soHdwzQzwyCW6pFb8n_aeRRTrAyTzN-pwOlgZBFoLL-2C4MEQhIE0sp8kSppPmGw7dwfv3a3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31529301 32349264 33029020 33078911 33068787 32818707
    32278705 31498759 31038862 30648982 30589101 30839273
    31529301=20



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