• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0521

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 11:45:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041144=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0521
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas northeastward
    across the Arklatex

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 041144Z - 041345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing this morning across central and eastern
    Texas and the Arklatex region will likely pose risk for large hail,
    along with gradually increasing thread for damaging winds. A WW
    will likely be required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered showers/weak
    thunderstorms evolving across portions of central and eastern Texas
    at this time, largely hindered by stout capping indicated by model
    soundings across this region. As a cold front advances
    southeastward across this area, ascent -- initially in an anafrontal
    sense to the cool side of the boundary -- will likely result in
    sufficient weakening of the cap to permit isolated/robust storm
    development to occur. The expected/elevated nature of the initial
    storms suggests that large hail will be the primary threat
    initially.

    With time, as storms increase in coverage and congeal to some
    degree, and shift eastward into areas of weaker antecedent capping,
    risk for damaging winds should gradually increase through the
    morning hours.=20=20
    =20
    Timing for initial/vigorous storm development remains uncertain,
    given the degree of capping; HRRR forecasts have delayed initial
    development as compared to earlier runs. At present, thinking is
    that WW issuance may be required between 12Z and 13Z.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZbz8kc7nt0V5D7M1gBJ40xAJB2kIVDAgJlkL7XXpFGvN8yuYciZb2PKdfPb7lVI5hxRnwJO$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 34229175 33749158 32469253 31249485 30139725 30909792
    32629563 33719400 34229299 34229175=20



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