• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0518

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 06:17:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040617
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040617=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-040815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0518
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0117 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern and western Kentucky into
    northern Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 040617Z - 040815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing hail up to
    about 1.5" in diameter -- will continue over the next couple of
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows scattered thunderstorms which
    have gradually increased in coverage over the past 1 to 2 hours from
    western Kentucky into northern Middle Tennessee. The storms are
    occurring within an area of weak QG forcing ahead of a subtle vort
    max crossing the area, aided by substantial elevated CAPE/steep
    mid-level lapse rates. Moderate flow aloft is sufficient for
    isolated stronger updrafts, and while the elevated nature of the
    convection suggests only limited wind risk, large hail will remain
    possible with stronger cells.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tbAcpzVvqFJZkcgTE4erqeZrN1_bu8__7XtZTBMqZiVSo0bop7dv2iFmA_8gOkIp2k-2azON$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 36938430 35908488 36268575 36768762 37428772 37828732
    37688614 36938430=20



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