• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0516

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 06:07:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040606
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040606=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0516
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern
    Illinois...southwestern Indiana...eastern Arkansas...western
    Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 040606Z - 040800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe risk will gradually increase across Mid Mississippi
    and lower Ohio Valleys, as convection expands/spreads eastward. A
    WW will be required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a large MCS -- comprised of a well-organized bowing band of storms moving eastward across northern
    and central Arkansas, and several smaller clusters of intense
    convection to the southwest.

    Ahead of the convection, a very unstable airmass -- characterized by mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg -- exists, in advance of the
    cold front crossing Missouri/Oklahoma/eastern Texas at this time.=20
    As this front -- and the associated upper trough crossing
    Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas -- progress, risk for damaging winds and hail
    will spread across the Mid Mississippi Valley area, with convective
    intensity aided by stronger flow spreading across the region ahead
    of the upper system. With the Arkansas bowing segment nearing
    northeastern portions of WW 137, a new watch -- across the lower
    Ohio Valley area and adjacent portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley
    -- will be needed within the next hour.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rA8gJIV60WI4_9VWTnhQsU0c1V8Lr9EKyqvgO49zADsO9hCNHIv-IsiC7w7DaYg4Oc40StI5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

    LAT...LON 37109069 37639053 38248865 38268724 37498709 35328772
    34898898 34949019 34969162 37109069=20



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