• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0515

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 04:35:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040434=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0515
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/northeast TX into
    western/central AR and far southern MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137...138...

    Valid 040434Z - 040600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137, 138
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will
    continue to be the main severe threats across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 137 and 138.

    DISCUSSION...A small but fairly well organized bowing complex will
    continue to move northeastward into north-central AR and perhaps far
    southern MO over the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind
    gusts will likely remain the primary severe threat with this
    convection. Even though MLCIN is gradually increasing downstream of
    this ongoing activity, a large reservoir of buoyancy remains
    available, with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range along and
    south of a front. Occasional significant severe wind gusts of 75+
    mph still appear possible given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
    large DCAPE present. Farther south into central/northeast TX, a
    broken line of storms should continue to pose an isolated large hail
    and damaging wind threat in the short term given strong deep-layer
    shear and moderate instability present. The greatest severe wind
    threat across this region should focus across part of northeast TX
    with a small cluster moving east-northeastward, where a measured
    wind gust to 87 mph occurred at the Sulphur Springs TX AWOS around
    04Z. Although there is some low-level veering/strengthening of the
    wind profile that will conditionally support a tornado (mainly in
    AR), the unfavorable storm mode should keep any tornado threat
    rather isolated.

    ..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oO0Zvy0ZRYI-5BVaYQRFprXSS8qi_bTJSGMC48riaLHdsatyI0fdII-M79MFvufWf5eqGpeu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31269711 32569629 33579548 34759429 35349397 36239403
    36699324 36809175 36209151 35579176 33269388 32819447
    31209675 31269711=20



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