• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0513

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 02:53:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040252
    SPC MCD 040252=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0513
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central into central TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

    Valid 040252Z - 040345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

    SUMMARY...Primary severe risks are transitioning to scattered
    damaging winds and isolated large hail this evening. Either an
    extension in area to WW 134 or a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
    likely be needed before the scheduled 04Z expiration of WW 133.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have recently grown upscale into a broken line
    in north-central TX along a composite cold front/dryline. Strong
    outbound velocities have been observed in/near Ellis County TX from
    KFWS. Given the increasingly linear nature to most of the convection
    across this region, scattered severe/damaging wind gusts should
    become the primary concern in the short term. But, isolated large
    hail and perhaps a brief tornado may still occur with any embedded
    supercells. Around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE remains present
    downstream of ongoing convection, along with strong deep-layer
    shear. Even with the loss of daytime heating, this favorable
    environment will likely allow for a continued severe wind/hail
    threat to persist beyond the scheduled 04Z expiration of WW 133.
    Either a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch or extension in area of WW
    134 to the east will likely be needed.

    ..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!panpBjMjn6MyRp2IioSCdl1QHdkkxOkQsFwOfIpLqH-VZpIuMeLTrHSTyZYqus2hB5pqVMnW$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31119807 31959748 32869653 33269599 33229578 33009570
    32129556 31629571 30919661 30729714 31119807=20

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