• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0511

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 01:39:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040138=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0511
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0838 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX...far southeastern
    OK...extreme northwestern LA...much of AR...and far southern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 040138Z - 040345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase this evening as storms
    approach from the west. Damaging winds should become an increasing
    concern. Isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes may also occur.
    Watch issuance is very likely.

    DISCUSSION...The OOZ sounding from LZK showed a very unstable
    airmass is present across much of AR to the south of a front, with
    around 3800 J/kg of MLCAPE observed. Robust, severe storms ongoing
    across north-central TX and eastern OK are expected to move eastward
    this evening into parts of northeast TX, much of AR, and eventually
    far southern MO later this evening. With generally upper 60s to mid
    70s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates in place
    across these areas, moderate to strong instability will likely
    persist through much of the evening and early overnight hours, even
    with the loss of daytime heating. Enhanced mid-level flow associated
    with a shortwave trough over the southern Plains will overspread
    this region, with around 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear supporting
    continued storm organization and intensity.

    An ongoing cluster of storms in eastern OK has recently produced a
    measured severe wind gust to 71 mph. Current expectations are for
    this cluster to continue growing upscale this evening as it moves
    into AR, with additional severe storms potentially developing from north-central into northeast TX. Both large hail and damaging wind
    gusts will be a concern given the large reservoir of buoyancy
    available. But, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will
    likely become the primary concern as the storm mode becomes
    increasingly linear across AR this evening. Given the steep lapse
    rates aloft, there may be some potential for significant severe wind
    gusts (75+ mph) if storms form into a bowing complex. Finally, even
    though low-level flow is not forecast to be very strong, a couple
    tornadoes also appear possible with any embedded circulations given
    around 100-150 ms/s2 of effective SRH forecast. With the overall
    severe threat expected to increase in the next couple of hours,
    watch issuance will be needed.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!syVaGTY5_6vAWn27QWN41ICKkrJht17XPPEA4TwPGEbJgxWWw9K113fBd-TmxsF_diydw5mx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32939518 34359493 34459440 35439435 36159450 36639325
    36879169 36879078 36749009 36518976 36068982 34949053
    34359109 33579225 32739413 32289497 32169540 32939518=20



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