Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/north-central TX into
Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...
Valid 040038Z - 040215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.
SUMMARY...A large hail threat continues in the short term, with
isolated tornadoes also possible. The severe wind threat may
increase across eastern OK this evening.
DISCUSSION...Numerous 1-1.75 inch large hail reports have been
received over the past hour or two with severe storms across central/north-central TX into southern/eastern OK. Large to very
large (1 to 3 inch) hail remains possible with the more discrete
supercells currently in north-central TX given the 3500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 00Z FWD
sounding. The low-level flow is not overly strong across this
region, but recent VWPs from KFWS show around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1
km SRH, which should be sufficient for low-level rotation. Indeed,
one supercell to the south of the Metroplex as of 0030Z has recently
produced a tornado. Isolated tornadoes will remain possible across
Tornado Watch 133 for at least a couple more hours, with somewhat
better potential with at least semi-discrete storms. Father north
into southern/eastern OK, storms have mostly congealed into a
cluster. All severe hazards appear possible with this activity in
the short term, but severe/damaging winds may become an increasing
concern this evening across parts of eastern OK if upscale growth
into a bow occurs along/south of a surface front.
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