• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0509

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 00:39:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040038=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-040215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0509
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0738 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/north-central TX into
    southern/eastern OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

    Valid 040038Z - 040215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

    SUMMARY...A large hail threat continues in the short term, with
    isolated tornadoes also possible. The severe wind threat may
    increase across eastern OK this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous 1-1.75 inch large hail reports have been
    received over the past hour or two with severe storms across central/north-central TX into southern/eastern OK. Large to very
    large (1 to 3 inch) hail remains possible with the more discrete
    supercells currently in north-central TX given the 3500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 00Z FWD
    sounding. The low-level flow is not overly strong across this
    region, but recent VWPs from KFWS show around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1
    km SRH, which should be sufficient for low-level rotation. Indeed,
    one supercell to the south of the Metroplex as of 0030Z has recently
    produced a tornado. Isolated tornadoes will remain possible across
    Tornado Watch 133 for at least a couple more hours, with somewhat
    better potential with at least semi-discrete storms. Father north
    into southern/eastern OK, storms have mostly congealed into a
    cluster. All severe hazards appear possible with this activity in
    the short term, but severe/damaging winds may become an increasing
    concern this evening across parts of eastern OK if upscale growth
    into a bow occurs along/south of a surface front.

    ..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oGCCcnUTuuTrJnEU0Wk1UszRih2USX3z78F5Q_13g4ZugQpk6cXHCMNHLwQE7zyTX7Gl5HVy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31539807 32369778 33059752 33469699 34509689 35129644
    35489575 35399496 34799475 34559508 32539661 31699732
    31449768 31419796 31539807=20



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