• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0508

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 00:14:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040013=20
    ALZ000-040115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0508
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0713 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128...

    Valid 040013Z - 040115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms may pose a risk for isolated
    damaging wind gusts and severe hail after the 0100z watch expiration
    of WW128. A local extension maybe needed.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms across east-central Alabama
    in the vicinity of Montgomery has shown occasional organization and
    severe characteristics over the last hour. These storms are ongoing
    in a partially modified unstable airmass with surface temperatures
    in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s F. SPC mesoanalysis
    indicates between 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of
    effective shear. The loss of diurnal heating should result in only
    marginal boundary-layer cooling suggesting that storms may retain
    intensity beyond 0100z. Given the favorable parameter space and
    occasional updraft rotation noted, isolated damaging wind gusts and
    severe hail will remain possible. A local extension of WW128 may be
    needed to account for the threat past 0100z.

    ..Lyons.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vWn1SAhv_7q3yz5vSev2ZIMzXBE0GCCMhJ3pDkto7QnJcnyfZnVUZI1IqP_KKyLhYF76_VIQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32068532 32008545 31978590 32018616 32148638 32388678
    32628694 32898669 32968628 33008561 32978524 32768516
    32558507 32408507 32268515 32068532=20



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