Mesoscale Discussion 0508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...east-central Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128...
Valid 040013Z - 040115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128
SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and severe hail after the 0100z watch expiration
of WW128. A local extension maybe needed.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms across east-central Alabama
in the vicinity of Montgomery has shown occasional organization and
severe characteristics over the last hour. These storms are ongoing
in a partially modified unstable airmass with surface temperatures
in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s F. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates between 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of
effective shear. The loss of diurnal heating should result in only
marginal boundary-layer cooling suggesting that storms may retain
intensity beyond 0100z. Given the favorable parameter space and
occasional updraft rotation noted, isolated damaging wind gusts and
severe hail will remain possible. A local extension of WW128 may be
needed to account for the threat past 0100z.
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