• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0507

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 23:20:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032319
    SPC MCD 032319=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0507
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest into central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 032319Z - 040115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A large hail threat will likely continue this evening as
    storms move eastward. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple severe supercells across west TX are expected
    to move eastward this evening into parts of northwest/central TX.
    This activity will remain to the north of a surface front, but
    surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to low 60s behind the
    front. 45-50 kt of deep-layer shear will likely continue to support
    supercell structures, and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
    rates and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg suggest large hail should remain
    the primary severe concern. Very large hail to 2+ inches in diameter
    also appears possible given the favorable thermodynamic and
    kinematic environment, as well as the robust structure of the
    ongoing supercells. Even with the frontal passage, isolated damaging
    winds may also occur since low-level lapse rates remain steep with
    clouds clearing and diurnal heating that has occurred earlier this
    afternoon. Given the expectation for multiple supercells to move
    eastward this evening and pose a continued large to perhaps very
    large hail threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qVrBoyVfMBPSs7xK35IAMXsjc8wmpZ_dcinyJnisvF3FPMMEhTZIxu6B-iD9iqrdsWR4HEKE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32120060 33380043 33399800 32609818 32099897 32120060=20

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