• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0506

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 22:57:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032256=20
    TXZ000-040030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0506
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...South central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032256Z - 040030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development possible through about
    7pm CDT, but uncertainty remains high. If storms form, the storm
    environment conditionally favors supercells capable of producing
    large hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus and a couple of orphan anvils have
    been noted from 2230-2250z in visible imagery from La Salle
    northward into Medina County in south central TX. These updrafts
    are forming along a weak surface trough/pseudo dryline that should
    retreat slowly westward this evening. Given the very hot surface
    temperatures and deep mixing layer along and west of the trough,
    there will be at least a low chance of sustained storm development
    before the boundary layer begins to stabilize near and after 00z.=20
    If sustained updrafts can initiate in this zone, the storm
    environment is conditionally favorable for supercells given large
    CAPE, steep lapse rates, and strong deep-layer vertical shear.=20
    While a watch is not currently expected given the uncertainty in
    sustained storm development, this area will be monitored for a
    conditional large hail/damaging wind threat for a few hours this
    evening.

    ..Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vcBcZqoDrDCzlcSg2ZcFz0HIuzmkRGVU3Jn2tT2e9_O2fgT8FQ58f6aYswV12W22BzCZuDC7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28709894 28209898 28009910 28069928 28639932 29169927
    29469910 29499891 29309893 28709894=20



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