• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 22:55:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032255=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-040030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0505
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX into southern OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

    Valid 032255Z - 040030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail should become
    maximized in the next couple of hours. Some of the very large hail
    could be 2-3+ inches in diameter. The tornado threat may gradually
    increase early this evening with any storms that remain discrete.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has erupted over the past hour or two along
    a composite cold front/dryline. Numerous instances of 1-1.75 inch
    hail have been reported with this activity. The airmass downstream
    of these severe storms remains strongly unstable, with MLCAPE of
    2500-4000 J/kg present. There have been some storm mergers and
    interactions along the surface boundary so far, and if this trends
    continues it could limit the very large hail threat to some extent.
    Still, given the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.6
    C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) per the 19Z observed sounding from FWD
    and enhanced flow at mid/upper levels, any supercell that can turn
    right and move off the boundary will have the potential to produce
    2-3+ inch hail over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the tornado
    threat may gradually increase through the early evening with any
    cell that can remain discrete, even though the low-level flow is not
    forecast to become overly strong.

    ..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ulZF4PPvdFUUomEy3QKi3_Q0hk58IspUZ98S3DpyfTuEMBSEZHEPhABDbbHkiU41lgfSkQAi$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31869791 32709764 33749742 34529714 34929665 34839616
    33729647 32629688 31779731 31649778 31869791=20



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