• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 22:46:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032245
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032245=20
    DEZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0504
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0545 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Maryland...Virginia...and Washington
    DC.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032245Z - 032345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado will
    be possible over the next couple of hours along a diffuse warm
    front. A weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and storm reports showed a small
    supeprcell over Jefferson Co. Maryland had intensified over the last
    45 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this storm is located along a
    diffuse surface warm front stretching from eastern Ohio toward the
    northern Chesapeake Bay. To the south of the front, surface
    temperatures in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the lower to middle
    60s F are support MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow
    ahead of a shortwave trough across the Carolinas is contributing to
    30-40 kt of effective shear as analyzed by local VAD VWPs.
    Observational trend suggest that severe weather in the form of
    damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this
    storm as it tracks east along the front over the next 1 to 2 hours.
    Given the limited spatial area and expected longevity of any severe
    risk as the storm moves into cooler air near the bay, a weather
    watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rv3a5SACOU-H0U_FeWtxB6gB78CtBkqj3p_Fwh576tk-9m8YK-JwwOE8UT0Wk1wrh5NURKv-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39317762 39257795 39477795 39727755 39677697 39647614
    39477571 39187595 39077645 39197751 39317762=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 23:17:00 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1620083823-1996-5628
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032316 COR
    DEZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0504
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0616 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Maryland...Virginia...and Washington
    DC.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032316Z - 032345Z

    CORRECTED FOR COUNTY REFERENCE

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado will
    be possible over the next couple of hours along a diffuse warm
    front. A weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and storm reports showed a small
    supeprcell over Federick Co. Maryland had intensified over the last
    45 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this storm is located along a
    diffuse surface warm front stretching from eastern Ohio toward the
    northern Chesapeake Bay. To the south of the front, surface
    temperatures in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the lower to middle
    60s F are support MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow
    ahead of a shortwave trough across the Carolinas is contributing to
    30-40 kt of effective shear as analyzed by local VAD VWPs.
    Observational trend suggest that severe weather in the form of
    damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this
    storm as it tracks east along the front over the next 1 to 2 hours.
    Given the limited spatial area and expected longevity of any severe
    risk as the storm moves into cooler air near the bay, a weather
    watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uCI-m8m2pf3NyRVGSc1bVxb9oXFW8ttOdwsiaCeJmjxH23w84_JXPpMFvbV9TAcP6hjif3jA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39317762 39257795 39477795 39727755 39677697 39647614
    39477571 39187595 39077645 39197751 39317762=20



    ------------=_1620083823-1996-5628
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    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1620083823-1996-5628--

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