• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0503

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 22:16:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032215=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

    Valid 032215Z - 032345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large
    hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but
    a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell
    structures.

    DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have
    matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe
    hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more
    discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have
    been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F
    dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid
    to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest
    veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk
    shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is
    expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms
    across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to
    points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in
    the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
    any supercell structures.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ofxyau6ELJe57bWQeQBDG6XJHDHeeLLZHYkhXMsUg55MW_LhfHzOEL2v5oUzHtcnQVJAdE4P$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 38498907 38229046 38379199 40449091 40999056 41168998
    41168913 41028879 40528785 39998774 39338810 38748861
    38498907=20



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