• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0502

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 22:13:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032212=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM into west TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

    Valid 032212Z - 032345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The environment remains favorable large hail as storms
    move eastward this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large (2+
    inches in diameter) in west Texas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
    also occur.

    DISCUSSION...A severe supercell in Terry County TX with a pronounced
    TBSS per KLBB radar will likely remain capable of producing large to
    perhaps very large hail in the short term as it moves eastward
    towards Lynn County. Other convection has also developed along and
    north of a cold front across parts of southeastern NM and west TX.
    Even though this activity will likely remain slightly elevated in a post-frontal regime, adequate low-level moisture behind the front,
    moderate mid-level flow, and a long, straight hodograph in forecast
    soundings through the mid/upper levels will likely continue to
    support organized severe storms. The greatest threat for large hail
    will likely focus across parts of west TX in association with the
    ongoing severe supercell. The airmass downstream is characterized by
    1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the presence of somewhat steepened
    mid-level lapse rates. Large to very large (1 to 2+ inch) hail
    should remain the primary severe threat in the short term. But, with
    steep low-level lapse rates also present just behind the cold front,
    isolated severe wind gusts may also occur.

    ..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tGMLfjfQXIwKkx0lRleMvJbYv0fEjd7YoMS65zoa6Z2FTkQdzqT8E32j6lrSaX27AN7-wPr7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33600394 33620244 33430114 32960076 32510073 32480178
    33040368 33400415 33600394=20



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