• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0501

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 21:52:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032151=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0501
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and far southwestern
    Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 032151Z - 032315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail is possible
    with developing thunderstorms near Springfield, MO. A watch is
    possible but high uncertainty remains.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon water vapor imagery showed a small shortwave
    trough/ MCV moving across a stalled cold front along the Mississippi
    River Valley into the Midwest. Heating along the front has eroded
    the majority of MLCINH across southwestern Missouri. SPC
    mesoanalysis indicates surface dewpoints in the low to middle 60s F
    and lapse mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km are supporting 1500-2500
    J/kg of MLCAPE. Flow aloft is not overly strong, but mid-level flow
    around 30 kts maybe be sufficient to support marginal supercells.
    Latest WOFS guidance indicates a moderate probability (50-70%) that
    the ongoing storms along the I-44 corridor will reach severe
    criteria over the next couple of hours. With veered low-level winds
    decreasing effective hodograph size, the primary severe threats will
    be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

    Considerable uncertainty remains on the coverage, longevity, and
    severity of storms as they translate northeastward over the next
    couple of hours. The favorable thermodynamics and marginal shear
    parameter space suggest some severe threat may materialize.
    Conditions will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm
    watch.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pf9SQAVqEq289ee9fr1Ou7WRa7lpAwOGMd2NQN33oGYkUsjd9npapHf1kN4dbdGnuHeTP1Bw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36719371 37379316 37889265 38459207 38759107 38839019
    38348969 37638949 36928994 36759100 36539278 36469392
    36719371=20



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