• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0498

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 20:15:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032014=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-032215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0498
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 032014Z - 032215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across north Texas and south-central Oklahoma between 5-7 PM CDT.
    These storms will pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. A
    watch is likely by 21 UTC.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations from north TX and southern OK
    reveal a surface low northeast of Abilene, TX with a stalled cold
    front draped to the southwest and a dryline extending to the south.
    To the northeast of this low, a stationary front is noted across
    southern to northeast OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows a
    shallow, but growing, cumulus field west of the DFW metro into
    southeast OK east of the stationary boundary. A 19 UTC FWD sounding
    shows considerable MLCIN remains in place, and should keep
    convection at bay in the near term. However, continued diurnal
    heating and increasing ascent over the region (due to the approach
    of an upper-level wave from the west) will help erode lingering
    inhibition by the 5-7 PM CDT time frame. Deep-layer shear is
    forecast to increase as stronger flow associated with the synoptic
    trough moves over the region, which will support initially discrete
    cells along the dryline and stationary boundary. Steep mid-level
    lapse rates noted in the 19 UTC FWD sounding and dewpoints
    increasing into the upper 60s/low 70s will support MLCAPE values
    near 3000-4000 J/kg.=20

    Consequently, severe hail appears likely and a few instances of
    large (2+") hail are probable with any initial discrete storms. The
    KFWS VWP recently observed around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which may
    support at least a low-end tornado threat across north TX. The
    tornado threat will likely be higher along the Red River and
    northward into south/southeast OK in the vicinity of the triple
    point and along the stationary boundary where more backed low-level
    winds are noted and environmental vertical vorticity is higher.
    Although the potential for a few tornadoes exists with any initial
    discrete convection, rapid upscale growth is possible within an hour
    or two after initiation, and may limit the overall tornado
    potential. Nonetheless, a tornado watch is likely by 21 UTC.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qXGE0lV4aMB3_YP3bxf71w9wrIa69Qj1LHiB46X8MCx-IpNVr9KlPXJqNuGhNVzvQtcTh1GP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32349878 33399800 34149751 34849731 35219655 35269553
    34959507 34309498 33569502 32899532 32439620 31919717
    31539805 31409867 31639898 32349878=20



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