Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and west Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 031924Z - 032130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely in the coming hours
across far southeast New Mexico and into west Texas. Damaging winds
and hail (potentially large hail) will be the primary hazards. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a growing cluster of
agitated cumulus along a stalled cold front northwest of Hobbs, NM
eastward towards Brownsfield, TX. Convective initiation may begin
within this cluster in the next 1-2 hours as MLCIN continues to
decrease amid daytime heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing.
MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to near 1000 J/kg, but will
likely continue to increase through the late afternoon to near 2000
J/kg. 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear will support organized
convection, and the orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors into
the cooler air mass to the north should support discrete cells.
Storms are expected to propagate to the east along the frontal
boundary into west TX. Mid-level lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km,
coupled with strong deep-layer shear, will support a hail threat,
and a few instances of large hail are possible across west TX in the
more unstable air mass. Low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will also
help support a damaging wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is
likely in the coming hours to address this concern.
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