• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0497

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 19:25:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031925
    SPC MCD 031924=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0497
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 031924Z - 032130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely in the coming hours
    across far southeast New Mexico and into west Texas. Damaging winds
    and hail (potentially large hail) will be the primary hazards. A
    severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a growing cluster of
    agitated cumulus along a stalled cold front northwest of Hobbs, NM
    eastward towards Brownsfield, TX. Convective initiation may begin
    within this cluster in the next 1-2 hours as MLCIN continues to
    decrease amid daytime heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing.
    MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to near 1000 J/kg, but will
    likely continue to increase through the late afternoon to near 2000
    J/kg. 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear will support organized
    convection, and the orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors into
    the cooler air mass to the north should support discrete cells.
    Storms are expected to propagate to the east along the frontal
    boundary into west TX. Mid-level lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km,
    coupled with strong deep-layer shear, will support a hail threat,
    and a few instances of large hail are possible across west TX in the
    more unstable air mass. Low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will also
    help support a damaging wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is
    likely in the coming hours to address this concern.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oBDMbFPNnMZsdxqCcZ9pW4nxio7EiIRvfb9QosYW7VMLaOPW8tA_FemKLDxYvt4As2aa0NhP$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32830419 33620390 33710297 33390204 33250097 33170023
    32729966 32189981 31870030 31920165 32180310 32520389

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