Mesoscale Discussion 0495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...central through north central Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 127...
Valid 031905Z - 032000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 127 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado watch 127 is scheduled to expire at 20Z. Overall
tornado threat is not as high as earlier today, and greatest
short-term threat exists across the eastern third of WW 127.
Expected tendency is for the tornado threat to gradually decrease
with time, but a few storms could still produce locally strong wind
gusts and possibly some hail the remainder of the afternoon.
Depending on trends, WW 127 might be replaced by a severe
thunderstorm watch within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...Low-level winds have been gradually veering during the
afternoon as the primary low-level jet shifts northeast through the
Carolinas and into the Middle Atlantic. This has resulted in a
reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs and a decrease in overall
tornado threat over most of north Georgia. However, the boundary
layer is destabilizing, and widely scattered storms will continue
developing within a moderately unstable environment where 30-40 kt
effective bulk shear remains sufficient for some storms to develop
mid-level updraft rotation. Isolated downbursts and hail should
become the main threats with any stronger storms developing beyond
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