• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0494

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 18:48:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031847
    SPC MCD 031847=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0494
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into West
    Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031847Z - 032045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger storms may pose a localized
    severe risk through the afternoon hours. A damaging gust or two are
    possible and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Given
    the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not

    DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually deepened and become more
    widespread across portions of the Ohio Valley as a mid-level vort
    max traverses the region. Pockets of insolation have allowed for
    marginal destabilization of the boundary layer, with around 250-400
    J/kg MLCAPE currently realized (per latest Mesoanalysis). 18Z PBZ
    and RLX VWPs depict considerable veering of the sfc-500 m winds,
    with modest 0-3km speed shear all contributing to 150-300 m2/s2
    0-3km SRH, with 0-1km SRH values occasionally exceeding 200 m2/s2.
    Nonetheless, upper support is expected to remain modest, with low
    and mid-level lapse rates likely to remain below 6.5 C/km across
    most locations. While the favorable shear environment would support
    a damaging gust or a brief tornado with a stronger storm, the
    marginal instability is expected to limit the severe threat. Given
    the very sparse and brief nature of any severe threat that can
    materialize, a WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sl1Miu902upSvtgVMLBxGDO9_0wjf88E7hrTetUUzOFOQ1rdRZaLu6PCyT1lDNkTsdM58lR0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37708096 37778204 38238268 38888291 39688282 40028207
    40408067 40217973 39987920 39587884 39167880 38657930
    38128004 37708096=20

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