• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 17:44:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031744
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031744=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-031945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031744Z - 031945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible through
    mid-afternoon and may pose an isolated hail threat. A watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across northeast NM
    within an upslope flow regime against the southern Rockies and
    across the western TX/OK Panhandles within a region of weak
    isentropic lift over a stalling cold frontal zone. This convection
    is being supported by elevated instability rooted above 700 mb with
    MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg common across the region. Strong
    upper-level flow in the vicinity of a synoptic wave over the Four
    Corners is supporting 30-45 knots of effective bulk shear, which
    will support some storm organization. Discrete to storm clusters
    appear likely and will favor a hail threat with any stronger updraft
    pulses. Storm motions northward into the cooler air mass will limit
    the severe wind potential, and storm interactions may limit storm
    longevity. The isolated, and potentially short duration, of this
    threat precludes a watch issuance, though a more robust severe
    threat is still expected to develop further south along the frontal
    boundary across west TX later this afternoon.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sGT8cT-Iq_7lIy7ItOhz5jkPn5QHXCNCxPXPVrZ6TvmaPnYW-19RGylQjn7FQE6BhOFfEhj-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 34340370 34020465 33460508 33290516 33100542 33150568
    33550586 34130593 34490606 35310647 35810636 36410601
    36700527 36510366 36730282 36670239 36170180 35480183
    34930228 34800304 34340370=20



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