• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0490

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 16:35:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031635
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031635=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-031830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0490
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031635Z - 031830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A developing line of storms may pose a damaging wind
    threat over the next few hours, and a watch is possible if
    intensification continues.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations across central NC show a residual
    cold front in place from Raleigh, NC southward into northeast SC.
    Satellite and radar trends show thunderstorms developing along this
    boundary across southeast NC. Mostly clear skies ahead of this line
    have allowed for temperatures to warm into the low 80s amid rich
    boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s
    noted). This is supporting around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of
    eastern NC. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection is
    noted with 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear over the region.
    Low-level shear is somewhat lacking as local VWPs show a nearly
    uni-directional wind profile in the lowest 3 km and only 20 knots of
    0-3 km bulk shear. However, steep low-level lapse rates approaching
    8 C/km will support efficient downward mixing and the potential for
    damaging wind gusts. While winds are the primary concern, a few
    instances of severe hail are possible given adequate deep-layer
    shear and orthogonal mean flow off the boundary (which may support a
    few discrete to semi-discrete storms). Discrete convection ahead of
    this line within the warm sector may also pose a wind/hail threat.
    Trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible if intensification
    becomes apparent.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o5ZTXKB8a9he-ggkmVpKRjwvDJgQf-PQ5WbYeHQMMir1gZzbfDyuZWzddhiVHWKdIVDYQ3Uy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34547932 34937905 35247886 35607893 35967864 36027792
    35987716 35557646 35077595 34527611 34007679 33927764
    33887809 34117885 34547932=20



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