• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0489

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 15:39:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031538
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031538=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-031715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0489
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1038 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...southern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031538Z - 031715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may become capable of producing mainly isolated
    damaging wind and hail this afternoon. Trends are being monitored
    for a possible WW.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends show storms continue to increase in
    coverage in the warm sector across southern AL. This activity is
    developing along cloud streets as the boundary layer destabilizes,
    supporting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg, but with weak mid-level lapse rates.
    Activity is primarily diurnally driven within a weakly capped but
    moist environment. Vertical wind profiles will remain modest with
    30-35 kt effective bulk shear supporting multicell and occasional
    marginal supercell structures. Isolated damaging wind appears to be
    the main threat, but some hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!snOMqwHKgAcluP3QhgT-A-KSDzU88WJL4eZ10Ky0B7C1i4DugmDb58DxxTgCEd0F1FHlOLeN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31248603 30968785 31308846 32158792 32588634 32118586
    31248603=20



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