Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 031538Z - 031715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may become capable of producing mainly isolated
damaging wind and hail this afternoon. Trends are being monitored
for a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends show storms continue to increase in
coverage in the warm sector across southern AL. This activity is
developing along cloud streets as the boundary layer destabilizes,
supporting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg, but with weak mid-level lapse rates.
Activity is primarily diurnally driven within a weakly capped but
moist environment. Vertical wind profiles will remain modest with
30-35 kt effective bulk shear supporting multicell and occasional
marginal supercell structures. Isolated damaging wind appears to be
the main threat, but some hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.
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