• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 00:05:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030005
    SPC MCD 030004=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far southern NE into northwestern and north-central KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

    Valid 030004Z - 030130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126

    SUMMARY...The greatest severe/damaging wind threat should focus
    across parts of far southern Nebraska into northwestern and
    north-central Kansas over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have recently congealed into a line across parts
    of northwestern KS and far southern NE along a surface cold front.
    Current expectations are for this line to surge east-southeastward
    this evening, where MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, 35-40 kt of deep-layer
    shear, and minimal MLCIN should support continued storm organization
    and intensity in the short term. Isolated large hail will remain a
    concern with any supercell embedded within the line. But, scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will likely be the main
    severe threat in the next 1-2 hours across northwestern into
    north-central KS given the increasingly linear nature of the
    convection and the favorably mixed boundary layer supporting
    efficient downdraft accelerations.

    ..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t_ViiabODAhYbzimtcgq8_9Cr35xZPPKuzpXo-wFWMo8woIJhUXPDGMSKKmrBKkXp1wQpFYo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39180149 40190067 40149989 39869914 39479906 39139920
    38589968 38480054 38640118 39180149=20

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