• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0478

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 22:13:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022212=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-022345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0478
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern CO and the western OK
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

    Valid 022212Z - 022345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind gust and marginally severe hail
    threat may continue for the next hour or two across part of
    southeastern Colorado. Downstream watch issuance to the south is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A high-based storm with a history of producing multiple
    measured 50-53 kt wind gusts is continuing into Bent County CO as of
    2210Z. The low-level airmass downstream of this ongoing convection
    remains very well mixed, with surface dewpoints generally in the
    upper 30s. A very deeply and well mixed boundary layer will likely
    continue to support efficient downdraft accelerations at/above
    severe thresholds in the short term. However, recent radar
    reflectivity imagery from KPUX shows outflow has surged well ahead
    of the strongest cell in Bent County, and it remains unclear how
    long this storm will maintain its intensity. Other isolated cells
    have developed across parts of the western OK Panhandle with a
    similarly well mixed boundary layer. Occasional strong/gusty winds
    approaching severe limits may also occur with these storms.
    Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain too
    isolated to justify downstream watch issuance to the south.

    ..Gleason.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ticZzZnSIXP3hvgV8GU71-5vaBqqcUINl-a6UjyM304oh85ShIIdI9uTbKJxmMtmxLNhL8wj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37910346 38230329 38210225 37680209 37000207 36560210
    36490240 36870281 37910346=20



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