• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0477

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 21:42:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022141=20
    ALZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0477
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...western Alabama.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 022141Z - 022245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Small supercells with a history of producing tornadoes may
    continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes over the next couple of
    hours as a warm front lifts northeastward.

    DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis showed a diffuse warm front across
    western Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Several small supercells
    have developed over the last within the deep surface moisture to the
    southwest of the warm front. Weak destabilization, MLCAPE around 500
    J/kg, will likely continue to support weak convection for at least a
    couple of hours. Backed low-level winds along the front are
    enhancing low-level shear with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Hi-res
    guidance and observational trends suggest a corridor of tornado
    potential will likely exists for at least a couple of hours as
    storms move to the northeast along the front. Coverage is expected
    to remain low, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Portions of
    west-central Alabama will be included in a Tornado Watch being
    coordinated across Mississippi.

    ..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tebgAtzKyR7uVXS7lIAjDDZYzAQ90DRPT_FP9W8_FP5rKunUiUGghzjkdbrtSezFqyaQGKjR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 33838781 33418738 32428730 31968730 31668742 31628766
    31728790 32218819 32868830 33458824 33558823 33908808
    33838781=20



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