• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0476

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 21:21:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022121
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022120=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-022315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0476
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0420 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Northeast Iowa...and
    Southwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022120Z - 022315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong, to perhaps severe, thunderstorms will
    continue to develop across the MN/IA/WI region over the next few
    hours. A watch is not expected

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along and just
    south of a warm frontal boundary across southeast MN into northeast
    IA and far southwest WI. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies along
    and south of the boundary have allowed temperatures to warm into the
    low 80s, which has helped erode lingering MLCIN. Dewpoints in the
    mid to upper 50s across the region is supporting MLCAPE values up to
    around 1000 J/kg. Although sufficient instability is in place,
    stronger flow aloft associated with a departing jet streak is
    displaced to the north of the better instability across eastern MN.
    The lack of more robust deep-layer shear over the bulk of the warm
    sector should limit the overall severe threat. However, a few strong
    to severe storms are possible along the boundary where a narrow
    region of favorable instability and 30-40 knots of effective bulk
    shear exists. Given the limited nature of this threat, a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!udxFWRaAqsEqMBoDy-UQhTFss1KBEaUHNPS4fl5nqQLR16UZp8XtTWRMMhQA4AYHyPH2DqLx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43329583 43769439 44039286 44209177 44169039 43868964
    43308955 42989003 42729082 42739245 42729374 42839528
    43029593 43329583=20



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