Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021
Areas affected...Eastern CO...northwest KS...southwest NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...
Valid 022045Z - 022215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
SUMMARY...While the severe threat through 23Z should remain rather
isolated over eastern CO and southwest NE, a substantial increase is
expected this evening centered on northwest KS. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Near-term severe threat is expected to remain most
prominent with a southeast-moving supercell that is currently east
of Pueblo. This cell should propagate more east-southeast over the
next couple hours across southeast CO with a risk for mainly severe
wind and some hail. Convection farther northeast across northeast CO
into western NE has generally remained sub-severe with the most
prominent recent wind gust of 45 kt at AKO at 2010Z. This activity
should largely spread across southwest NE with a threat for strong
to isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail.
Recent HRRR runs along with the 18Z NAM-Nest have trended towards
the indication of a separate corridor of thunderstorm development
across northwest KS. This appears to be in response to strengthening
low-level convergence along the boundary, especially from 23-00Z, as
it impinges on the northwest periphery of MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg.
Initial updrafts will pose a severe hail threat before upscale
growth yields a substantial severe wind threat around 01-02Z given
the steep lapse rate environment.
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