• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0475

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 20:46:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022046
    SPC MCD 022045=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0475
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern CO...northwest KS...southwest NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

    Valid 022045Z - 022215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124

    SUMMARY...While the severe threat through 23Z should remain rather
    isolated over eastern CO and southwest NE, a substantial increase is
    expected this evening centered on northwest KS. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Near-term severe threat is expected to remain most
    prominent with a southeast-moving supercell that is currently east
    of Pueblo. This cell should propagate more east-southeast over the
    next couple hours across southeast CO with a risk for mainly severe
    wind and some hail. Convection farther northeast across northeast CO
    into western NE has generally remained sub-severe with the most
    prominent recent wind gust of 45 kt at AKO at 2010Z. This activity
    should largely spread across southwest NE with a threat for strong
    to isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail.

    Recent HRRR runs along with the 18Z NAM-Nest have trended towards
    the indication of a separate corridor of thunderstorm development
    across northwest KS. This appears to be in response to strengthening
    low-level convergence along the boundary, especially from 23-00Z, as
    it impinges on the northwest periphery of MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg.
    Initial updrafts will pose a severe hail threat before upscale
    growth yields a substantial severe wind threat around 01-02Z given
    the steep lapse rate environment.

    ..Grams.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sHQM38LIUEKv1FqYo8vr72FuKny8-BUES6R1ZQ5TdnZOFYMTCgHrjNkbtKdUi2WP-oPKjdb4$=
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    LAT...LON 40430307 41140233 41720164 41610120 41240063 40890039
    40550026 39980008 39170018 38490133 37970227 37950347
    38260404 38640424 39220343 39840302 40430307=20

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