• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0474

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 20:33:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022033=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-022230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0474
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022033Z - 022230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across central Louisiana may
    intensify in the coming hours as clouds gradually clear over eastern
    LA and west/southwest MS. Trends will continue to be monitored, and
    a watch is possible in the coming hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends show scattered
    thunderstorms continue to develop across central LA within a broad
    warm frontal zone and just ahead of a mid-level vorticity maximum.
    However, convective intensity has generally stagnated, likely due to
    a combination of marginal instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE),
    somewhat shallow mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km), and a lack
    of stronger low-level forcing for ascent. These storms will likely
    remain sub-severe in the near term, but an increase in intensity is
    possible further downstream across northeast LA and into western and southwestern MS. Latest GOES visible imagery shows gradual clearing
    across this region, and surface temperatures have responded with
    several stations reporting temperatures in the upper 70s and low
    80s. This will help augment MLCAPE over the next few hours and may
    support gradual intensification. Additionally, regional VWPs show
    veering flow within the lowest 2-3 km that could support organized
    low-level mesocyclones and a more robust severe threat. A watch is
    possible in the coming hours if convective trends begin to show
    signs of intensification.

    ..Moore/Dial.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rii4FJ3kssn71sKMrkZQs08qQAlPvoSmZ9zTjXWqDwF9iipLWGgAvUSmqduyeYLnxcyqzHxX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31739234 32369209 32819178 33169134 33409093 33539054
    33469008 33158976 32458963 31878964 31488969 31268990
    31169042 31109105 31089149 31089201 31159236 31739234=20



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