• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0473

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 19:15:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021915
    SPC MCD 021915=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...East-central to northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

    Valid 021915Z - 022045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124

    SUMMARY...A severe wind and marginal severe hail threat may resume
    as thunderstorms spread east across the eastern CO plains.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has gradually been increasing
    along and just behind an eastward-moving composite outflow/front.
    The most pronounced recent development has been across Morgan to far
    eastern Adams/Arapahoe Counties and separately to the southwest
    within the upslope regime across western El Paso County. The
    downstream air mass has warmed through the 70s and low 80s across
    the eastern CO plains, but surface dew points at or above the mid
    40s have become increasingly confined to along the state border with
    KS/NE. The lack of greater moisture will continue to limit available
    buoyancy and suggests the stronger updrafts will contain small to
    perhaps marginally severe hail amid moderate effective shear from
    30-35 kt. Further clustering of convection will likely be necessary
    for an appreciable uptick in severe wind potential.

    ..Grams.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uI8-EGuMu98k-NK2mqWxTLIL72ScQilGv5ox_jV-p-BNfAjdD-8JQKts1yhaGKNTdr3QuulO$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40760372 39780399 39210455 38700485 38440456 38420383
    38510265 39040206 40030177 40660187 40760372=20

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