• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0472

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 18:47:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021847=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-022015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Central Louisiana and far east Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021847Z - 022015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected through
    the afternoon. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts along
    with a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...An area of showers has shown gradually cooling cloud
    tops over the past hour. The environment is currently not overly
    favorable for severe weather with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg and
    a mostly unidirectional wind profile. However, additional heating
    and low-level moisture advection is expected to yield greater
    instability by later this afternoon in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
    This may be sufficient for a few stronger updrafts and supercell
    structures given 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. Weak rotation in
    most of the ongoing showers further supports the potential for
    supercell structures, at least initially. Veered low-level flow
    should limit the overall tornado threat, but moderate speed shear
    (0-1 km shear around 25 kts per KPOE VWP) and more backed low-level
    flow across northeast Louisiana may support a tornado or two by
    later this afternoon/evening.=20

    A watch is possible, but the limited area and duration of the threat
    may preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Bentley/Dial.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pk8sVexdx7VUGYEKbRiYUN_L3-2lvPEFa_eQnF1ecE1P14tE9Ngs0SguPFB3HNx5_eNgjGbJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32209366 32399313 32289234 31929187 31459165 31269173
    30989219 30599286 30479339 30689369 31089390 31649394
    32209366=20



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