• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0471

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 2 16:14:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021614
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021614=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-021815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0471
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 AM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...North-central to northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021614Z - 021815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm development may pose a risk for
    marginally severe hail and wind through early afternoon. This
    initial activity is expected to remain too marginal to capture with
    a severe thunderstorm watch. Greater severe potential is expected
    later this afternoon and farther east towards the KS/NE border.

    DISCUSSION...Convective development is underway across Larimer and
    Boulder counties in conjunction with a mid-level impulse shifting
    east across the area. Weak low-level east-northeasterlies are
    apparent in FTG VWP data and this should contribute to near 30-kt
    effective shear amid modest mid to upper-level southwesterlies. As
    surface temperatures have already warmed through the 60s into the
    low 70s across the adjacent high plains, meager buoyancy has
    developed and should increase further as robust insolation
    continues. The expectation is for this convection to spread east
    across a focused corridor of north-central to northeast CO posing a
    threat for marginally severe hail and wind. Development farther
    south along the Front Range will likely be necessary to enhance
    potential for cluster evolution later today.

    ..Grams/Dial.. 05/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vnbczIwrhOPobidljyc6mLenRd7BugGp3HwI78nYa9V-SlCCnZSbmlR6GVDe84l3AfS8zgyw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40600558 41060500 41080416 41090362 40550321 39830337
    39190402 39110484 39050527 39320589 39740584 40600558=20



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