• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0470

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 1 16:08:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011608=20
    TXZ000-011745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0470
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1108 AM CDT Sat May 01 2021

    Areas affected...south central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011608Z - 011745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms could pose a risk for locally strong, but
    probably sub-severe wind gusts as they continue northeast through
    South Central Texas through 18Z. At this time a ww will probably not
    be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A forced line of storms has recently become better
    organized just southwest of San Antonio and is moving northeast at
    near 30 kt. This band of storms is developing in association with a northward-moving MCV. Downstream the atmosphere is only marginally
    unstable with around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak lapse rates. VWP data
    show easterly flow through the lowest 2 km which, given the weak
    cap, should augment deep convergence along the leading gust front
    and help to maintain forward propagation next couple hours. The
    widespread low clouds will significantly limit degree of boundary
    layer destabilization in the near term, which combined with only
    modest mid-level flow and weak lapse rates should limit overall
    severe threat. Nevertheless, a few instances of strong wind gusts
    cannot be ruled out as this activity continues northeast next couple
    hours.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qyurtGB-8s_FDm2Xn15ZNZ0179kV8iyHDyaBbXps-Xq6F__Uj3I28e8QSfmkUB0d260S1U8v$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28799894 29139908 29449914 29749861 29559814 29039843
    28799894=20



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