• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0469

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 1 13:07:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011307
    SPC MCD 011306=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0469
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0806 AM CDT Sat May 01 2021

    Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley eastward into southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011306Z - 011500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms crossing the Rio Grande may produce marginal hail
    this morning, but a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity and coverage over
    northern Coahuila, with marginal MESH shown on radar. These storms
    are in a rather weakly unstable air mass with only a few hundred
    J/kg of MUCAPE, but are aided by cooling aloft with the upper low.
    The 12Z DRT sounding shows little instability, but modifying for
    observed temperatures and dewpoints to the southeast yields
    sufficient instability.

    Ample PWAT exists over southern TX (1.50-1.75" per GPS sensors), but
    little heating is expected in the near term. However, easterly mean
    winds in the low levels will aid storm-relative inflow to any
    approaching cells, and may maximize updrafts despite marginal
    instability. Cold temperatures aloft could support hail.

    Storm evolution will continue to be monitored this morning as
    conditions ahead of these storms destabilize further.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vV--Dlg12lZ6EjJjAU9Z4P5kzP4-275EwK_40onBFQ-Re17Ky2NVu9TMDK_ewjOYyMWSUrKI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29280108 29720032 29799960 29689869 29529832 29199805
    28749797 28319823 27989889 27739956 27889997 28320034
    28930077 29280108=20

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