• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0486

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 11:50:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031150
    SPC MCD 031150=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0650 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031150Z - 031345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may produce locally damaging gusts, with a
    threat of a brief tornado as well. Coverage of severe is not
    expected to warrant a watch at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms arcing southwestward across Middle TN
    and into western TN persists this morning, beneath moderate westerly
    flow aloft under a departing shortwave trough. Periodic convergent
    shear zones and mainly broad mesocyclones have been noted at times
    both with QLCS structures and individual cells.

    The northern portion of the deeper showers and thunderstorms are
    more favorably oriented for supercells with more of a cross-line
    component to the deep-layer shear vector. However, these areas are
    also less unstable, with only low 60s temperatures and dewpoints.=20

    A more prolonged threat perhaps will be with activity farther
    southwest, which is in closer proximity to a more unstable air mass
    emanating out of MS/AL. Although up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE exists here,
    low-level flow has more of a westerly component, with SRH slowly
    decreasing with time. Overall shear remains sufficient at this time,
    however, for a severe storms or two, with damaging wind or brief
    tornado risk. Given that the shortwave trough continues to lift away
    from the area, coverage of severe is expected to remain isolated,
    and a watch may not be needed.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oGqjKkZz3zz7tIiwcujBggXPbjq3rF45i3jiGlRswbILHI6p7DEuR3UI6PcsNtLZDnHOdF6B$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35298785 35588812 35828761 36038661 36158580 36448503
    36248458 35798441 35248482 35148607 35118717 35158767

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