Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into southwestern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 030656Z - 030930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A corridor of severe risk, including damaging gusts or a
brief tornado, may develop along the Mississippi/Tennessee border.
It is uncertain whether coverage of severe will warrant a watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and storms currently extend eastward
along the MS/TN border, with a recent uptick in intensity and
organization just south of Memphis TN. While winds just off the
surface have veered on the immediate back side of the upper trough,
shear remains strong and instability remains sufficient to sustain
severe storms. VWPs still indicate 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, along with
40 kt effective shear.
The northwest MS cluster is ingesting upper 60s F dewpoints, and south/southwest low-level mean winds will aid advection of moisture,
eventually into TN. This will result in MLCAPE on the order of
750-1000 J/kg. Thus, given current radar trends, a narrow zone of
severe wind/QLCS tornado threat may extend east of the developing
line of storms. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1620025048-1996-5176--