• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0485

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 06:57:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030657
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030656=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0485
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

    Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into southwestern
    Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 030656Z - 030930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A corridor of severe risk, including damaging gusts or a
    brief tornado, may develop along the Mississippi/Tennessee border.
    It is uncertain whether coverage of severe will warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and storms currently extend eastward
    along the MS/TN border, with a recent uptick in intensity and
    organization just south of Memphis TN. While winds just off the
    surface have veered on the immediate back side of the upper trough,
    shear remains strong and instability remains sufficient to sustain
    severe storms. VWPs still indicate 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, along with
    40 kt effective shear.

    The northwest MS cluster is ingesting upper 60s F dewpoints, and south/southwest low-level mean winds will aid advection of moisture,
    eventually into TN. This will result in MLCAPE on the order of
    750-1000 J/kg. Thus, given current radar trends, a narrow zone of
    severe wind/QLCS tornado threat may extend east of the developing
    line of storms. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
    growth.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qF0TfU_tGkb_EKVHJqU_3Js_UM0-8UXxaHwC8IKQyX3qVzyUEwEJm9VHfm_6Evy1pps0TFbC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35149000 35538803 35478764 35268749 34978756 34898780
    34808855 34688941 34678994 34779014 34899011 35149000=20



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