• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0482

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 3 01:36:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030136=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-030300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0836 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS and southern into
    east-central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

    Valid 030136Z - 030300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely continue this
    evening in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126. Isolated large
    hail also remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have grown upscale into an arcing line from
    southwestern into west-central KS, continuing into southern and
    east-central NE. As this convection moves east-southeastward this
    evening, it will encounter around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and weak
    MLCIN. The 00Z sounding from DDC observed a well mixed boundary
    layer with steep low and mid-level lapse rates. A 25-30 kt
    south-southeasterly low-level jet should support continued storm
    organization, with scattered severe/damaging winds mainly in the
    60-70 mph range the primary threat in the short term. The strong to
    severe convection in southern/east-central NE has remained along a
    cold front, with occasional large hail reported. This activity is
    not expected to move off the front very quickly this evening, which
    should keep the overall severe hail/wind threat fairly isolated with
    northward extent. The greatest severe wind risk should focus across
    parts of western/central KS over the next hour or two where the
    greatest instability is present.

    ..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sWQ2nbN2HVmGRkB_HYrW9duIZcJwL4PGFnitKC1iJ1SfoMPdieR7fwJK3FJLEdVdzoVM8JJj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37120105 37910085 38650101 39510009 39710009 40519947
    40719841 41189746 41259706 40819714 40569761 39869844
    39089904 38149931 37469955 37070007 37050070 37120105=20



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