• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0468

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 29 20:52:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292052=20
    NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-292315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0468
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland...Delaware...and
    southern New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292052Z - 292315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat may accompany any storm that manages to
    develop over the next few hours, though storm initiation remains
    highly uncertain at this time. Any severe threat that develops is
    expected to be sparse and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to gradually intensify while
    moving east-northeast along the PA/NY border. Aloft, a mid-level
    trough impinges on the Atlantic Seaboard. Latest Mesoanalysis
    depicts a weak impulse embedded in the 500 mb flow over the WV/VA
    border, which is associated with a 60+ kt mid-level jet streak and
    is overspreading a surface lee-trough axis. Though weak, enough
    deep-layer ascent across portions of the Mid Atlantic may suffice to
    support the development and sustenance of a couple thunderstorms
    through the late afternoon and early evening hours.

    Ahead of the surface lee-trough, 40-50 kts of southwesterly 925-850
    mb flow is overspreading the upper Mid Atlantic/lower Hudson Valley.
    Though veering with height is not particularly pronounced, the
    stronger low-level flow overspread by the aforementioned mid-level
    jet streak is supporting 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear. LWX,
    DOX, and DIX VWPs over the past couple of hours have also shown
    modestly curved hodographs with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH. Enough
    diurnal heating has supported surface temperatures reaching near 80
    F, that combined with low to mid 60sF dewpoints has contributed to
    500 J/kg MUCAPE (much which is surface-based) despite mediocre
    mid-level lapse rates. Given the mixed boundary layer, latest
    Mesoanalysis has depicted much of the 0-3km SRH to be the effective
    inflow layer. As such, any storms that can develop and sustain
    themselves will have the potential to become organized and
    potentially rotate. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main
    threats. Nonetheless, the severe threat is highly conditional given
    low confidence in storms initiating. If initiation does occur,
    storms are expected to remain very isolated, with a WW issuance
    being unlikely.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t6gvQrjUzJH79meBXrg-nsDlezInSzXmcoMFAfX8m7wWjJRWzV5cATC063sligXNCPjCtmEo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38687568 38687607 38797626 39117645 39417647 39757596
    39827544 39767503 39687469 39477436 39147463 38897474
    38687568=20



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