• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0467

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 29 08:15:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290814
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290814=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0467
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

    Areas affected...Missouri Bootheel region...lower Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290814Z - 291115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts are possible from far northeast
    Arkansas toward the lower Ohio River Valley, but severe coverage is
    not expected to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...An MCV is evident on radar over northeast AR and
    straddling the MO border, ahead of a weak cold front. Dewpoints of
    63-67 F are common east/northeast of the MCV and as far north as
    southern IL. Though moist, this yields only a few hundred J/kg of
    MUCAPE per SFCOA due to weak lapse rates.

    Southwesterly 850 mb flow of 40-50 kt is likely to persist tonight
    ahead of the cold front, and below moderate mid and high level
    winds. Veering winds with height and good deep-layer shear is thus conditionally favorable for severe storms, and shear may be locally
    enhanced near the MCV. However, the limited instability is expected
    to minimize overall threat. A few strong wind gusts will be possible
    in association with the MCV convection, but a watch is unlikely.

    ..Jewell.. 04/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vpeIo7Ld7Hr7cReUUTxapxHDjIHwHc0_q7Fy2itWobvWQTG6xKJUTW8ZwYm_poMKVXjL5kYD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35579147 35809105 36009087 36339082 36559093 36759103
    37119053 37878920 38008847 37918795 37468753 36908777
    36538838 36208900 35908992 35579147=20



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