• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0466

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 29 06:10:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290610
    SPC MCD 290609=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0466
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

    Valid 290609Z - 290815Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather continues over eastern parts
    of watch 121, and may persist toward the Arklatex area, and a new
    watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms currently extend from northern
    AR into southeast AR and into north TX, along and ahead of the outflow-composite cold front. Surface analysis shows upper 60s to
    lower 70s F dewpoints over northeast TX and into southwest AR,
    contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear remains
    favorable for organized storms as well, with 50-60 kt. In addition,
    effective SRH remains substantial with 300 m2/s2 over much of the
    area. The favorable shear may sustain storms over the next several
    hours, despite a minor warm layer near 700 mb.

    Various strong storms along the front may yet become severe as they
    evolve ahead of the cold front. Though storm mode is mixed, at least
    brief supercells are possible, with tornado threat. Given that the
    threat may persist beyond the typical 2-hour watch extension period,
    a new watch may be considered.

    ..Jewell.. 04/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qRYVHLlXnum6IbsiLUzIfC9uPxU7P8OHYm7rpthITbtqotEx9cRBvYSSXz_5G7b4wxgD1Pu3$=
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    LAT...LON 32079517 31849679 31999721 32399731 32979679 33989632
    34359614 34859556 35299482 35389378 35199331 34959312
    34329317 32949375 32229460 32079517=20

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